Good morning Reader! If you want to know what interest rates will do and we're far from a Fed meeting, the best place to look is the 10-Year Treasury yield. When there's news (or even just before!), you can see it reflected in the changing yield of the 10 Year. For example, the 10-Year jumped to 4.595% this week on the news of new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's confirmation and inflation data. When the yield goes up, interest rates go up. When it goes down, interest rates go down. You're probably...
7 days ago • 2 min read
Good morning Reader! The CNN Fear & Greed Index is showing greed right now in the stock market (yesterday, it was extreme greed!). It calculates this based on seven indicators. I always find these fascinating because it's similar to the list of previously hit numbers on a roulette table. While true, just the indicators feeding the Fear & Greed Index are true, it's not predictive. Just because investors are afraid doesn't mean we should listen to Warren Buffet and buy buy buy everything. And...
14 days ago • 3 min read
Good morning Reader! It might not seem like it but the stock market is doing quite well. The S&P 500, Nasdaq 100, and Russell 2000 closed at all time highs yesterday. The Iran war's ceasefire is still holding on, despite fighting yesterday, and oil prices are falling (down 15% the last 5 days). Hopefully this signals the true end of this conflict. Thankfully, I've done nothing with my investments. I learned from my biggest investing mistake during the pandemic and remembered to bury my time...
21 days ago • 2 min read
Good day Reader! The Federal Reserve meets this week and everyone expects them to keep rates unchanged. The Iran war lingers on, only a few tankers are making it through Hormuz each day, oil prices remain elevated, and that has kept inflation up... which means likely no change for the Fed rates. But Beth Hammack, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, said that inflation might force the Fed to raise rates! (might be a good time to check if you can get a better rate from Credible)...
28 days ago • 2 min read
Good day Reader! The up and down nature of the stock market this past week could give anyone whiplash - fortunately, the moves haven't been so big as to really push people to panic. But if you have felt uneasy, now is a good time to think about your risk tolerance. I think most people overestimate their tolerance of big market (and thus, portfolio) moves. If that describes you, now may be a good time to rethink it as the S&P just touched all-time highs. If you haven't been fazed... that's...
about 1 month ago • 2 min read
Good day Reader! 🥳 Happy Tax Day! Our friends at Passionate Penny Pincher share a list of tax day freebies for 2026. 🔥 The BLS released the March inflation figures and the impacts of the Iran war are now percolating through the economy. Up 3.3% in March vs. last year, up from 2.4% in February vs. last year - that's a big jump. This also means the Fed is unlikely to lower interest rates, which means those with debt are unlikely to get a reprieve anytime soon. If you have high interest credit...
about 1 month ago • 2 min read
Good morning Reader! Moody's has an AI recession model that just said there's a 49% chance of a downturn. It's trained on 80 years of data and when the model hits 50%, there's been a recession within 12 months. And it's based on February data, which does not yet include the Iran war and its impact on oil prices. (and the two week ceasefire just announced yesterday night) That doesn't mean sell all of your stocks and hide. But it does mean it's time you should be playing defense in other areas...
about 2 months ago • 2 min read
Good morning Reader! You should watch this explanation of the Yen Carry trade and how its unwinding impacts our economy and your personal finances. As a long term investor, I am not adjusting my allocations or making any other significant changes. I will, however, make sure that my actual allocations match my targets. I believe in remaining informed, even if it doesn't affect my actions, because then I won't be surprised when something happens. The market is dominated so heavily by news...
about 2 months ago • 3 min read
Good morning Reader! Last week, a reader (Hi Gloria!) ask why I never list Vanguard's Cash Plus account in the interest rate roundup below. Here's my answer: I don't list the Vanguard Cash Plus Account because the yield is only 3.35% APY (that includes a 0.25% boost that they will remove on 4/30/26), which makes it lag behind most other banks. It's just not competitive. I love Vanguard though, I have most of our investments there, but the Cash Plus account isn't that great. Vanguard's Money...
2 months ago • 2 min read