Good morning Reader! If you're wondering why the stock market is doing so well while Americans seem to be so pinched by inflation, the answer is technology. AI is clearly fueling this incredible run in the market even though many consumers are feeling squeezed. Remember, the stock market is NOT the economy. Interest rates might go up this year and anyone holding onto variable debt will see their payments go up. Higher rates are great when you're a saver, tough when you're a borrower. We're...
8 days ago • 2 min read
Good morning Reader! My family spent the better part of a week and a half up in the Lake Tahoe region, near Fallen Leaf Lake. I barely had cell service, no WiFi, and loads of hiking and nature. I loved it. This is the view from Mt. Tallac at 9,739′ above sea level: Lake Tahoe & Fallen Leaf Lake It's important to unplug sometimes and get a bit of perspective on life without the interruptions. It doesn't have to be at 9,739 feet but I find that nature helps. And it doesn't have to be for a week...
15 days ago • 3 min read
Good morning Reader! We spent the last week or so up in the Lake Tahoe region and so I haven't been thinking too much about work and money. It's been a great chance to disconnect and recharge... and hike a lot! So this week's email will be brief. I did want to share a post I wrote a while ago that I still think about it frequently. It's the idea of Winner's Games and Loser's Games... check it out and let me know what you think. 💲 Best Bank Rates (as of 7/21): 💰 High Yield Savings - 3.80% APY...
22 days ago • 1 min read
Good morning Reader! The CAPE Index is a number some investors look at to help understand if the S&P 500 is overvalued. With consumer spending down and the market at all time highs (thanks to AI!), you might be curious what the number is ... it's 40.64. Is the market overvalued? Maybe. Can it stay overvalued and get even more overvalued? Yes. Don't try to time the market but stay informed. It may be a good time to do something responsible like rebalance your portfolio. If your allocations are...
29 days ago • 2 min read
Good morning Reader! A few general purpose news items to share with you this week: This cyclospora thing is nuts. It's been going on for weeks, there are thousands of cases across 34 states, and we still don't know the root cause other than it's fresh produce. Michigan thinks it might be lettuce or salad greens. All advice says cook your food and avoid fresh produce (for now). We also might be saying bye to changing our clocks. The House of Representatives approved a bill to make daylight...
about 1 month ago • 3 min read
Good morning Reader! Question: I've been experimenting with AI (specifically LLMs like Claude and ChatGPT) to analyze my finances. Is that something you'd like me to write more about? If so, what would you want to learn? We're seeing interest rates creep up a few basis points over the last week or so. 12-month CDs that used to be 4.10% APY and now are in the 4.15% or 4.20% range. 🔒 If you use Vanguard, they recently added a way to stop unauthorized ACATS transfers (previously you had to call...
about 1 month ago • 2 min read
Good morning Reader! It can be confusing to see the stock market at all time highs but not feel like you're doing well. That's because the "stock market" isn't the economy. It's just a collection of publicly traded companies, organized in a way that makes it easy for pundits to talk about. The S&P 500 is up close to 10% and it's mostly because of AI related stocks - tech companies, chips, etc. How much AI related spending have YOU been doing? So the market looks great but the economy might...
about 2 months ago • 3 min read
Good morning Reader! Last week, the Fed kept rates steady but they indicated that there was likely to be one rate increase this year. Trump wants rates to go down but the new Fed chair has said "not so fast..." Interest rate traders peg the chances of an increase at the next meeting at 36.3%. If you were hoping for a rate decrease, unfortunately it's not coming unless something significant changes. The 2-year Treasury bond yield is at the highest it's been since early 2025. The 10-year, used...
about 2 months ago • 3 min read
Good morning Reader! The headlines from last week were focused on SpaceX's IPO but there's a bigger story and it comes from the Chicago Fed's Advance Retail Trade Summary. Retail and food services sales fell 1.3% in May. (adjusted for inflation and seasonality) Americans are buying less stuff. And consumer spending is roughly 2/3rds of the economy. A recession is defined as two consecutive quarters of negative GDP "growth" - but you have to experience six months of a recession before you call...
2 months ago • 2 min read