Good morning Reader! The stock market has been on a tear recently, with the S&P 500 going up 8% in the month of May which puts it up close to 11% YTD. And that's before SpaceX joins the party! (to which I have mixed feelings) At the risk of sounding like a broken record - remember to stay invested. In related news, I had a reader tell me that he's been aggressively going after bank bonus offers and investing the proceeds (after holding back a bit for taxes). Many banks will give you cash to...
7 days ago • 2 min read
Good morning Reader! The stock market is doing well but regular Americans aren't. The S&P 500 is up nearly 9% year to date but... ... consumer confidence is not good. And as long as the Iran war drags on, the longer oil prices will remain high. And high fuel prices are bad for consumers. I read someone make the claim that for ever week of the Iran war, we'll have a month of high inflation. While the equation is never that simple, we're seeing inflation and it's heavily influenced by higher...
14 days ago • 2 min read
Good morning Reader! If you want to know what interest rates will do and we're far from a Fed meeting, the best place to look is the 10-Year Treasury yield. When there's news (or even just before!), you can see it reflected in the changing yield of the 10 Year. For example, the 10-Year jumped to 4.595% this week on the news of new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's confirmation and inflation data. When the yield goes up, interest rates go up. When it goes down, interest rates go down. You're probably...
21 days ago • 2 min read
Good morning Reader! The CNN Fear & Greed Index is showing greed right now in the stock market (yesterday, it was extreme greed!). It calculates this based on seven indicators. I always find these fascinating because it's similar to the list of previously hit numbers on a roulette table. While true, just the indicators feeding the Fear & Greed Index are true, it's not predictive. Just because investors are afraid doesn't mean we should listen to Warren Buffet and buy buy buy everything. And...
28 days ago • 3 min read
Good morning Reader! It might not seem like it but the stock market is doing quite well. The S&P 500, Nasdaq 100, and Russell 2000 closed at all time highs yesterday. The Iran war's ceasefire is still holding on, despite fighting yesterday, and oil prices are falling (down 15% the last 5 days). Hopefully this signals the true end of this conflict. Thankfully, I've done nothing with my investments. I learned from my biggest investing mistake during the pandemic and remembered to bury my time...
about 1 month ago • 2 min read
Good day Reader! The Federal Reserve meets this week and everyone expects them to keep rates unchanged. The Iran war lingers on, only a few tankers are making it through Hormuz each day, oil prices remain elevated, and that has kept inflation up... which means likely no change for the Fed rates. But Beth Hammack, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, said that inflation might force the Fed to raise rates! (might be a good time to check if you can get a better rate from Credible)...
about 1 month ago • 2 min read
Good day Reader! The up and down nature of the stock market this past week could give anyone whiplash - fortunately, the moves haven't been so big as to really push people to panic. But if you have felt uneasy, now is a good time to think about your risk tolerance. I think most people overestimate their tolerance of big market (and thus, portfolio) moves. If that describes you, now may be a good time to rethink it as the S&P just touched all-time highs. If you haven't been fazed... that's...
about 2 months ago • 2 min read
Good day Reader! 🥳 Happy Tax Day! Our friends at Passionate Penny Pincher share a list of tax day freebies for 2026. 🔥 The BLS released the March inflation figures and the impacts of the Iran war are now percolating through the economy. Up 3.3% in March vs. last year, up from 2.4% in February vs. last year - that's a big jump. This also means the Fed is unlikely to lower interest rates, which means those with debt are unlikely to get a reprieve anytime soon. If you have high interest credit...
about 2 months ago • 2 min read
Good morning Reader! Moody's has an AI recession model that just said there's a 49% chance of a downturn. It's trained on 80 years of data and when the model hits 50%, there's been a recession within 12 months. And it's based on February data, which does not yet include the Iran war and its impact on oil prices. (and the two week ceasefire just announced yesterday night) That doesn't mean sell all of your stocks and hide. But it does mean it's time you should be playing defense in other areas...
2 months ago • 2 min read