Greetings Reader, The Conference Board publishes a consumer confidence index each month that captures how Americans feel about their economic future. The latest number for March was the lowest it's been in 12 years. The future is always unpredictable but when we feel bad about it, it becomes even harder to navigate. My advice for this? Be smart and prepare for a recession but stop watching the news about it. It's not good for you or your psyche! (FWIW, 12 years ago in 2013, all the indices...
9 days ago • 1 min read
Howdy Reader, The Federal Reserve meets today and will announce any interest rate changes this afternoon, though traders expect no change. (well, 1% chance of a 25 basis point reduction, which is tiny) The interesting thing is that the Fed may have tamed inflation without causing a recession (yet?). Here's a good article on that subject. Whether or not we will face a recession in the next year or two will yet to be seen, but if you're worried then you'll want to read the first article. (View...
16 days ago • 1 min read
Howdy Reader, The stock market has been like a rollercoaster this year week. With the tariffs on and then off and then on and then whatever... plus stocks being relatively high (even with the pull back on Monday, we were last at this price in September 2024), you might be wondering if you should DO something. If you are nearing retirement, this level of volatility should make you reconsider your portfolio allocation a little bit. Vanguard released a market outlook report late last year that...
23 days ago • 1 min read
Good day to you Reader, Yesterday, President Trump enacted tariffs on China, Canada, and Mexico. And the stock market fell, then recovered a little, then fell back... This gave media a lot to talk about (which they love, because that's how you sell ads) but if you're a long term investor, you know this too shall pass. The most important skill in investing is to learn how to manage your emotions and stay the course. Easier said than done... but in the first post below, I share what I do. (View...
30 days ago • 1 min read
Good day to you Reader, Yesterday, President Trump mentioned that the US would start "selling" Gold Cards to wealthy foreigners. They're like green cards except they cost $5,000,000. At first, you might think this is some novel idea but it's not - they're known as golden visas. Several other nations (including the U.S.) offer permanent residency, with a path towards citizenship, in return for investment or donations. I explain in this short Instagram video. More on Golden Visas below 👇 (View...
about 1 month ago • 1 min read
Good day to you Reader, The S&P 500 hit a new record yesterday and we all expect the Fed to keep interest rate the same (97.5%)... because, well, inflation is still not kicked. Eggs are still expensive. There seem to be new tariffs every day, then not new tariffs, then maybe some tariffs. Such is life. It's a wild time but a good reminder that the best thing you can do is invest in low cost index funds and go on with your life. Nick Maggiulli, who writes Of Dollars and Data, wrote: Nick...
about 1 month ago • 1 min read
Good morning Reader, We just spent a few days in Florida to go to Walt Disney World with the family. Four kids, two grandparents, ourselves and another family (our besties) of four rolled twelve deep and had a blast. It takes a PhD to figure out how to do Disney right and fortunately my lovely wife was up to the task! If you need Disney advice, let me know because she planned and executed the perfect trip and I can steal her notes. Now I need a vacation after our vacation! (View this email as...
about 2 months ago • 1 min read
Good morning Reader, The big financial news this week was the release of DeepSeek, an AI out of China that may be better than existing AI models out there and made at a fraction of the cost. NVIDIA stock dropped 17% on the news ($600 billion in market cap lost) because it could be a signal that people won't need as many of their expensive chips going forward. Time will tell. Tech is a huge component of the S&P 500 (NVIDIA accounts for ~2.80% of the S&P 500 too), which is why those index funds...
2 months ago • 1 min read
Good morning Reader, How are the temps where you are? We're in the single digits in Maryland but it's not nearly as wild as what folks in Texas (snow in Houston???) and Florida (snow on the beach in Destin???) are experiencing! We actually had a pipe freeze overnight (it's in an unheated crawlspace) but was fortunate that fifteen minutes with a hair dryer did the tricks. Homeownership is fun! 😂 (View this email as a webpage) 💳 Should you pay taxes with a credit card? Good question! The short...
2 months ago • 1 min read