Good morning Reader! Last week, the Fed kept rates steady but they indicated that there was likely to be one rate increase this year. Trump wants rates to go down but the new Fed chair has said "not so fast..." Interest rate traders peg the chances of an increase at the next meeting at 36.3%. If you were hoping for a rate decrease, unfortunately it's not coming unless something significant changes. The 2-year Treasury bond yield is at the highest it's been since early 2025. The 10-year, used...

Good morning Reader! The headlines from last week were focused on SpaceX's IPO but there's a bigger story and it comes from the Chicago Fed's Advance Retail Trade Summary. Retail and food services sales fell 1.3% in May. (adjusted for inflation and seasonality) Americans are buying less stuff. And consumer spending is roughly 2/3rds of the economy. A recession is defined as two consecutive quarters of negative GDP "growth" - but you have to experience six months of a recession before you call...

Good morning Reader! When President Trump nominated Kevin Warsh to be Chair of the Fed, everyone thought it was because Warsh would be willing to cut rates. But the economy is doing too well. And he doesn't have the authority to unilaterally do it. There's a greater than zero chance that interest rates head higher soon. If you've been looking at mortgage rates in the mid 6% and remembering the days when it was below 3%, interest rates don't seem low right now. But low is relative. When the...