Good morning Reader!

Moody's has an AI recession model that just said there's a 49% chance of a downturn. It's trained on 80 years of data and when the model hits 50%, there's been a recession within 12 months.

And it's based on February data, which does not yet include the Iran war and its impact on oil prices. (and the two week ceasefire just announced yesterday night)

That doesn't mean sell all of your stocks and hide. But it does mean it's time you should be playing defense in other areas of your finances.

💲 Best Bank Rates (as of 4/8):

• High Yield Savings - 4.21% APY from Axos​
• Short Term Treasury - VBIL 3.58%, SGOV 3.55%
• Certificates of Deposit (see 30k+ rates on CD Valet)
  • 🔍 We list nationwide rates, CD Valet has many local rates which may be higher so click through to double check.
  • Best: 4.25% from OMB Bank (5mo)
  • 6 months: 4.15% from LimeLight Bank
  • 12 months: 4.15% from Credit One Bank​
  • 60 Months: 4.05% from Credit One Bank​
• Bank Bonuses - $400 US Bank, $400 BMO, $1500 Raisin, $250 Capital One​

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😥 How to Prepare for a Recession

A couple years ago, the warning signs of a recession were mostly talk. But in 2026, this concern is much higher and if you aren't preparing for it now, you will not be ready.

With the Iran war, tariffs, and general economic uncertainty, the likelihood of a recession in the United States is must higher now than it was before.

If you are concerned, here is what you need to do.

​👉 How to Prepare for a Recession in 2026​

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If something happened to you, would your loved ones know what to do?​

If not, you need a life & legacy organizer, sometimes called an "in case of emergency" binder or "family emergency" binder.

For $24, you get a 50-page printable PDF that helps you organizer your financial and legal life.

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🗞️ In Case You Missed It

Here are some interesting articles you may have missed:

• ​The Iran War Just Broke the Petrodollar [Bloomberg Opinion] - "The virtuous loop that has seen America underwrite stability in the Middle East in exchange for Gulf states recycling their dollar revenues into US Treasuries has been broken."
• ​What Does It Take To Be In The Top 1%? Hint: It’s Not JUST Wealth [Accidentally Retired] - "You can be wildly successful in one facet of life, but you might be a wreck in all the others."
• ​Best Money Advice of All Time [Kiplinger] - "That's why we asked a diverse group of 35 top financial experts — acclaimed investors, advisers, money managers, economists, influencers and more — to share their very best advice with Kiplinger readers."
• ​Vanguard Investors Cleaned Up [Morningstar] - "On an asset-weighted basis, Vanguard’s equity funds returned 12.6% per year over the decade ended Dec. 31, 2025. Ignoring flows, this translated to roughly $4.6 trillion in gains."
• ​What's the Value of One Day? [The Root of All] - "Worries about the future are why people panic with investments, envisioning events that never come to pass. But when you flip the story and imagine a positive future, things can change, as one study found that those who have clearer, more thoughtful, vivid, detailed mental pictures of their future save more."

What did you think of today's email?​
✅ I Loved It! 🟨 It Was Okay ❌ Not My Favorite​

Talk to you soon!

Jim

PS. Did you know there's an app that helps you find price drops at Costco? If you buy something at Costco and it drops in price within 30 days, you can get a refund. Costpal keeps track of your receipts and notifies you of a drop.​

​(see archive of previous emails)​